July 28, 2026
Overview
While it is quiet on Capitol Square as legislators don’t plan to return until after the elections, our team is staying busy working with legislative offices, monitoring elections, attending events, and preparing for next year’s budget. With a new governor being inaugurated in January 2027, the Departments are preparing their budget for next year and are expected to submit recommendations by the end of the year. While the legislature will likely not return to committee and session until November, members are very active in their communities as they campaign for the general election. Ohio remains a Republican-leaning state, but 2026 presents several competitive statewide races, including a closely watched U.S. Senate contest and an open gubernatorial race. Democrats see opportunities to regain ground, while Republicans remain favored based on recent statewide performance. More in this update on the state’s fiscal outlook, elections updates, new Medicaid work requirements, and small business issues.
State Fiscal Outlook
According to the monthly financial report for June from the Office of Budget and Management (OBM), FY26 General Revenue Fund disbursements were below estimates by $778 million or 1.7%. A large chunk of that underspending is attributable to Medicaid, which saw FY26 GRF expenditures come in $450 million or 2% below estimates. Medicaid underspending was primarily due to the declining caseload, per OBM, which at around 2.8 million is now back to levels seen just before the pandemic. Underspending in the broader health and human services made up the next biggest component of FY26 underspending at $142 million, down 6.4% from estimates.
Election Update - Statewide
G2G continues to work with all candidates in the statewide races. Recent polling indicates the 2026 elections in Ohio will be very close. The top 2026 races are highly competitive, margin-of-error contests across the board. Across Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide races, Ohio polling points to tight, highly competitive contests likely to be decided late in the cycle:
- U.S. Senate: The race between former 3-term Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown and incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted is effectively a toss-up, with polling averages showing Brown holding a razor-thin lead of about +0.6 points and other surveys alternating between slight advantages for each candidate.
- Governor: The open gubernatorial race between former Director of the Ohio Department of Health Amy Acton, MD and pharmaceutical entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy is similarly tight, with at least one recent poll showing Acton ahead by roughly 3 points, although still well within the margin of error.
- Statewide landscape: Overall, polling suggests a competitive, battleground environment, with Democrats showing small leads in some surveys but no clear advantage, reinforcing Ohio’s status as a closely contested state heading into 2026.
Election Update – Statehouse
There are about 20 Statehouse races that will decide by how much the Republicans remain in the majority, as Republicans are expected to maintain control of both the House and Senate in Ohio.
House District 10 – Franklin County
Candidate (D) – Mark Sigrist, incumbent who flipped the district in 2024
Candidate (R) – Denise D’Angelo, school board member, small business owner, and licensed massage therapist
Outlook – One of the most competitive seats; essentially an even partisan split
House District 11 – Franklin County
Candidate (D) – Crystal Lett, incumbent who flipped the district in 2024
Candidate (R) – Shawn Kaeser, social studies teacher and member of the America 250-Ohio Commission
Outlook – Leans Democratic
House District 14 – Cuyahoga County
Candidate (D) – Sean Brennan, incumbent seeking a third term
Candidate (R) – David Morgan, manufacturing worker and Army veteran
Outlook – Slight Democratic edge but competitive
House District 15 – Cuyahoga County
Candidate (D) – Chris Glassburn, incumbent and former North Olmsted councilman
Candidate (R) – Daniel Conway, accountant and business consultant
Outlook – Democratic-leaning but competitive
House District 17 – Cuyahoga County
Candidate (D) – Megan Coy, registered nurse and city councilwoman
Candidate (R) – Mike Dovilla, incumbent, Vice Chair of the House Finance Committee
Outlook – Republican-leaning
House District 23 – Lake County
Candidate (D) – Dan Troy, incumbent in final term before term limits
Candidate (R) – Julie Belich, city councilwoman and business president
Outlook – Slight Republican lean but competitive
House District 27 – Hamilton County
Candidate (D) – Rachel Baker, incumbent seeking a third term
Candidate (R) – Elizabeth Maier, businesswoman and company president
Outlook – Democratic-leaning battleground
House District 28 – Hamilton County
Candidate (D) – Karen Brownlee, incumbent
Candidate (R) – Jill Cole, mayor and realtor
Outlook – Democratic-leaning
House District 31 (Open Seat) – Summit County
Candidate (D) – J. Noah Spinner, attorney and library trustee
Candidate (R) – Mike Kahoe, former school board member
Outlook – Toss-up; one of the most competitive seats
House District 34 – Summit County
Candidate (D) – Derrick Hall, incumbent
Candidate (R) – Craig Shuber, former mayor, journalist, and business leader
Outlook – Democratic-leaning
House District 35 (Open Seat) – Southern Geauga County, portions of eastern Summit County, and parts of eastern and southern Portage County
Candidate (D) – Samantha Salamon, attorney and nonprofit legal counsel
Candidate (R) – Vik Sandhu, businessman and local government figure
Outlook – Republican-leaning
House District 36 – Montgomery County
Candidate (D) – Rose Lounsbury, former teacher and activist
Candidate (R) – Andrea White, incumbent
Outlook – Slight Republican lean
House District 39 (Open Seat) – Montgomery County
Candidate (D) – Daquan Neal, former legislative aide
Candidate (R) – Mark Campbell, longtime city council member and manager
Outlook – Republican-leaning
House District 49 – Stark County
Candidate (D) – Krista Allison, educational consultant
Candidate (R) – Jim Thomas, incumbent
Outlook – Toss-up.
House District 52 – Lorain County
Candidate (D) – Mike Baker, small business owner
Candidate (R) – Seeking replacement after Sen. Nathan Manning was appointed to Ohio’s Ninth District Court of Appeals
Outlook – Competitive but GOP has overperformed
House District 60 – Delaware County
Candidate (D) – Shelby Kimball, Marine Corps veteran and advocate
Candidate (R) – Brian Lorenz, incumbent
Outlook – Republican-leaning
Senate District 3 – Franklin, Madison & Pickaway Counties
Candidate (D) – Stacie Baker, councilman and community outreach coordinator
Candidate (R) – Michele Reynolds, incumbent
Outlook – Republican-leaning
Senate District 13 – Lorain & Huron Counties
Candidate (D) – Joe Miller, state representative
Candidate (R) – Gayle Manning, state representative
Outlook – Republican-leaning
Senate District 27 (Open Seat) – Summit & Portage Counties
Candidate (D) – Michael Roberto, former school superintendent
Candidate (R) – Steve Demetriou, state representative
Outlook – Most competitive Senate race; slight GOP lean
Senate District 29 – Stark County
Candidate (D) – Thomas West, former state representative
Candidate (R) – Jane Timken, incumbent
Outlook – Strong Republican advantage
Campaign Spending
In Ohio’s 2026 gubernatorial race, spending is already reaching high levels, driven largely by Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who has poured at least $25 million of his own money into the campaign accounting for the vast majority of his fundraising and giving him a significant cash advantage. Amy Acton has also posted strong fundraising numbers, raising over $5 million in a recent quarter and more than $10 million overall, largely from small-dollar donors. The race is expected to be an expensive general election contest, with heavy self-funding, outside spending, and advertising likely to escalate through November.
In Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, Sherrod Brown raised more than $17.1 million in the second quarter that is more than double the $7.7 million reported by Jon Husted. Husted’s campaign noted record GOP totals and over $11 million cash on hand, as both major candidates have escalated the race with new attack ads.
Small Business
The Ohio Department of Development announced its Small Business Development Center program has supported 60,000 entrepreneurs since 2019, helping create nearly 17,000 jobs and secure $1.3 billion in capital, the highest level of engagement in the program’s 40-year history, while the National Federation of Independent Business reported rising small business optimism nationally in June, driven by improved expectations for business conditions and sales. Through a statewide network serving all 88 counties, Ohio’s SBDC program provides counseling, financing assistance, and strategic guidance to help businesses launch and grow, complementing broader economic trends showing cautious optimism despite ongoing challenges. NFIB data indicate uncertainty remains elevated, inflation continues to pressure owners, and hiring, particularly finding qualified workers, stands out as a key concern in Ohio, even as more businesses expect stronger conditions, plan capital investments, and look to expand in the months ahead.
G2G continues to advocate for many life sciences companies throughout Ohio and for NAWBO to advance women-led businesses and is working to ensure business assistance programs are effective in helping these businesses grow.
Medicaid Work Requirements
The 2025 “Big Beautiful Bill” or H.R. 1 is changing how Medicaid works starting in January 2027. It will require most Medicaid expansion enrollees to prove they are meeting work or community engagement standards to maintain coverage. More than 760,000 low-income, working-age Ohioans enrolled through Medicaid expansion could be affected as the policy is implemented over the next several years. Ohio’s own 1115 Medicaid waiver seeks to tie Medicaid expansion coverage for adults aged 19 to 55 to community engagement criteria—specifically requiring individuals to be employed, in school or job training, or meet specific health and treatment exemptions, so in line with H.R. 1. The increased administrative responsibilities for all states, new reporting and verification systems, and the potential for coverage disruptions among eligible individuals who meet requirements but cannot document it will impact all state Medicaid programs. As Ohio works to align its waiver and implementation strategy with federal mandates, policymakers will need to navigate key decisions around exemptions, enforcement, and timelines, while balancing concerns about access to care, workforce participation goals, and administrative costs. See the full report here for more information.
G2G continues to monitor this very closely as many patient communities will be impacted by Medicaid work requirements. We work with the Ohio Bleeding Disorders Council, rare disease community, as well as many patient groups in women’s health and are planning to educate on the impact of these changes to help ensure these communities have access to the programs they need.