November 20, 2025
October and early November have brought several major developments across Ohio’s political and policy landscape. Ohio has seen significant activity, including the adoption of a new congressional redistricting map, key rulings from the Ohio Supreme Court, and early movement in the 2026 election cycle with new candidacies announced. The legislature held their last day of session for the year with marathon sessions passing more than 30 bills. They will return in January, and we are hopeful they will take up the Capital Budget at the top of 2026, though leadership has not given a concrete answer on if it will happen at all. G2G has continued active engagement with legislators, state agencies, and coalition partners to assess these changes while also preparing for the Capital Budget.
Redistricting
In late October, the Ohio Redistricting Commission unanimously approved a new congressional map, concluding months of stalled negotiations and positioning the state for the next several federal election cycles. The map creates a 12–3 Republican-leaning configuration, a notable shift from the previous 10–5 distribution. The unanimous vote, an unusual moment of bipartisan coordination, appears designed to avoid a potential referendum challenge and ensures the map remains in effect until the 2030 cycle.
Several districts underwent significant structural or demographic changes, prompting early recalculations among both parties. While the new map improves Republican odds in multiple regions, some districts remain competitive based on candidate quality and national turnout trends. G2G is reviewing the impact and meeting with stakeholders to adjust federal engagement strategies accordingly.
FEDERAL SHUTDOWN RESOLUTION & POLICY OUTCOMES
With federal operations restored, Congress approved a short-term funding agreement that extends key programs through early 2026 while deferring several contentious debates. The deal prevents further disruption to SNAP, federal workforce operations, and health and human services programs, many of which Ohio agencies and local governments depend on for continuity of operations.
Throughout the shutdown, Ohio’s congressional delegation emphasized the need to preserve essential programs and minimize administrative strain on county agencies. SNAP operations in particular will return to normal processing timelines, though temporary adjustments made during the shutdown highlighted structural vulnerabilities within the system. G2G is continuing to monitor federal budget negotiations as future debates in early 2026 may reintroduce pressure points relevant to clients.
OHIO SUPREME COURT RULING ON NURSING HOME QUALITY PAYMENTS
The Ohio Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling requiring the Ohio Department of Medicaid (ODM) to recalculate nursing-home quality incentive payments is expected to have major implications across the long-term-care sector. The Court found that ODM’s previous calculation method “dramatically shortchanged” nursing facilities by excluding certain federally recognized quality measures and misinterpreting statutory language. Provider associations estimate that correcting the formula could shift up to $1 billion in payments across multiple fiscal years.
Long-term-care facilities, already facing workforce shortages, rising operational costs, and increased post-pandemic demand, view the ruling as a necessary correction to the state’s quality-based system. ODM and state budget officials must now determine how to operationalize the recalculation and absorb the financial consequences.
Given the magnitude of the fiscal impact, G2G is closely monitoring how this ruling may influence capital-budget deliberations, agency priorities, and future legislative decision-making.
2026 ELECTION LANDSCAPE
Candidate activity for the 2026 cycle continues to accelerate following the release of Ohio’s new congressional map. In the 13th Congressional District, Republican Kevin Coughlin withdrew from a rematch against Congresswoman Emilia Sykes (D-OH-13), citing the new boundaries that now modestly favor the Democratic incumbent. The withdrawal reshapes the dynamics of what was previously expected to be a highly competitive race.
Two Democratic-held districts, those of Marcy Kaptur (D-OH-9) and Greg Landsman (D-OH-1), are gaining heightened attention from Republicans. Kaptur’s Toledo-area and Northwest Ohio district shifted rightward under the new map, prompting significant GOP interest including from former State Rep. Derek Merrin and current State Rep. Josh Williams. In Cincinnati, Landsman’s district also moved to the right, leading several Republicans to weigh competitive challenges heading into the 2026 cycle.
At the state level in Northeast Ohio, State Rep. Joe Miller officially launched his campaign for the Ohio Senate seat being vacated by term-limited Senator Nathan Manning. Miller’s candidacy is expected to influence regional education and workforce policy discussions given his legislative background. G2G will continue tracking candidate announcements and district competitiveness as the 2026 cycle takes shape.
LEGISLATIVE SESSION UPDATE
The Ohio Legislature passed a series of bills around property taxes, workforce issues, and education during their last planned session day of the year on November 19th. Below is an overview of key legislation passed by both chambers and headed to the Governor’s desk for consideration.
Lawmakers moved a large package of property-tax reform bills, including Ohio House Bills 124, 129, 186, 309, and 335. Together, these measures limit growth in both school district and taxes and inside millage, so property-tax collections cannot rise faster than inflation. Supporters frame the package as meaningful relief for homeowners while opponents have raised concerns about long term impacts on local government and school revenue as well as social services.
The General Assembly additionally advanced a major budget correction package after the Senate Finance Committee converted HB 184 into a vehicle for dozens of changes affecting Medicaid policy, education, public safety, and workforce issues. The most significant provision clarifies the formula for nursing home quality incentive payments going forward. This follows the recent Ohio Supreme Cout ruling. Lawmakers emphasized that the revised language applies only prospectively and does not affect what nursing homes may be owed retroactively.
The bill also delivers progress on post-traumatic stress injury (PTSI) coverage for first responders. Lawmakers included $40 million to seed a new fund created several years ago but never funded. The program would provide mental-health support for police, fire, and EMT personnel outside the traditional workers’ compensation system, and the fund’s administration is shifted to the Ohio Department of Public Safety.
Additional provisions in the bill include requiring the Department of Education and Workforce to publish annual updates on its implementation of Ohio’s science-of-reading laws; mandating that Ohio’s public colleges submit building and fire code inspection reports to state agencies and make remediation cost estimates public; delaying until July 2028 the shift to enrollment-based reimbursement for publicly funded child care; and capping the “percent for the arts” construction spending on individual projects at $200,000.
G2G is monitoring all of these developments and engaging with legislators on what their legislative priorities will be in the 2026 election season.
CAPITAL BUDGET
The FY 2027–2028 Capital Budget process is underway with agencies preparing Capital Improvement Plans and reappropriation requests in advance of November deadlines. Legislative offices and regional delegations are beginning to articulate their priorities, with several Chambers of Commerce across the state putting together project lists that would be beneficial to their region but there has been no official deadline or guidance from the legislature.
However, Speaker Matt Huffman (R-Lima) has stated that a Capital Budget Bill is “not on the radar” right now, which could signal a delay in guidance being released. There is also the possibility of there being no Capital Budget as the state re-evaluates its fiscal health, especially with the potential $1 Billion dollar price tag attached to the latest Ohio Supreme Court ruling on nursing home quality payments. G2G will continue to monitor the Capital Budget process and will advise on the best path forward.
Ohio Fiscal Outlook
Ohio’s overall fiscal posture remains stable, entering the latter half of the fiscal year. Personal income tax and commercial activity tax revenues continue to exceed estimates, though vehicle sales tax and fuel tax collections have underperformed. Budget officials note that, while the Rainy-Day Fund remains strong, ongoing revenue volatility, inflationary pressures, and pending liabilities from the recent Medicaid ruling may influence fiscal decision-making in the months ahead.
These dynamics may shape both the capital budget and upcoming deliberations around infrastructure, public-safety investments, and social-services funding. G2G will continue tracking these trends closely.
ONEOHIO RECOVERY FOUNDATION
The OneOhio Recovery Foundation continues preparing for its second regional grant cycle, expected to launch in December 2025, with approximately $45.7 million available statewide. During the November 12 board meeting, the Foundation reviewed community feedback and confirmed that the next cycle will prioritize recovery housing, treatment services, legal supports, behavioral-health workforce capacity, and evidence-based prevention programs.
Particular emphasis is being placed on increasing access in Appalachian communities and supporting smaller nonprofit applicants through enhanced technical assistance. G2G is assessing project eligibility, preparing funding inquiries, and aligning proposals with regional priorities ahead of the January–February 2026 review period.
G2G at Ohio Events
G2G has maintained a strong presence across Ohio’s policy, education, health, and business community events over the past several weeks, ensuring our team remains deeply engaged with state legislators, emerging issues, and opportunities to engage community leaders.
G2G attended the Ohio Excels Workforce and Education Conference which brought together education, industry, and policy leaders to discuss strengthening Ohio’s talent pipeline. Sessions explored expanding career-connected learning, improving alignment between K-12 and post-secondary pathways, and supporting the state’s long-term workforce needs. The conference underscored the rising emphasis on workforce readiness, employer partnerships, and credentials needed in emerging industries.
The Groundwork Ohio Momentum Institute event brought together policymakers, healthcare organizations and early childhood advocates. The event wanted to examine strategies for improving maternal and infant health, expanding access to high-quality early learning, and ensuring long-term child well-being. Discussions highlighted the importance of stable funding, community partnerships, and early intervention, all topics that continue to shape legislative and budget debates.
G2G participated in the Ohio Life Sciences: Establishing Your Life Sciences Entity in Ohio event. The industry-focused event focused on Ohio’s rapidly expanding biosciences and health-innovation ecosystem. Conversations centered on navigating regulations, accessing capital, working with state development agencies and entities, and leveraging Ohio’s research institutions. The event examined the state’s ongoing efforts to attract and scale biotech companies.
Columbus Metropolitan Club: Will Nonprofits Lead or Be Led? This program offered an in-depth look at the evolving expectations placed on nonprofits as the demand for social services continues to increase. Speakers addressed organizational sustainability, workforce shortages, shifting donor priorities, and the growing pressure to demonstrate measurable community impact. These themes echo challenges faced by many Ohio nonprofits as they prepare for the upcoming Capital Budget.
G2G also attended a discussion-focused luncheon with state legislators and industry leaders at Gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s Luncheon. Conversations were focused around exploring Ohio’s economic direction, including proposals to provide property-tax relief, eliminate the state income tax, remove the capital gains tax, and pursue broader education reforms around teacher pay and topics taught in the classroom. The event offered a great insight into candidate Ramaswamy’s policy plans for the future should he win the 2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Election.